What We’re Reading – Predicting COVID-19’s Long-Term Impact on the Home Health Care Market

It was expected that 2020 would bring some staggering changes to the home health industry as a result of the Patient-Driven Groupings Model (PDGM) and phasing out of the Requests for Anticipated Payment (RAP), resulting in the exit of smaller agencies and much consolidation.  The COVID-19 outbreak took things to a whole new level and not all of them appear to be negative. Obviously, our healthcare system was hard-hit by the pandemic, and our system’s most vulnerable – the aged & infirm, the primary patient population of the home care business – were the most affected.

However, the pandemic threw a lifeline to the home care arena, as summarized in this excellent article from Home Health Care News.  First, the federal government provided for financial relief to providers, which stalled the mergers & acquisitions fever prompted by new regulations.  But the crisis made changes to the industry that many believe will not be so temporary, the largest of which is the push away from institutional care and toward home-based services. Finally, right?

The article’s author believes that, given the large number of deaths of institutionalized patients, a SNF-to-home diversion wave will sweep the long-term care industry, bringing patients with higher acuity levels and greater co-morbidities into home-based care.  A concomitant hospital-to-home model that bypasses SNF care for all but the most acute, could be devastating if the industry is not well-prepared.

Most home care agencies we work with are not versed in the monitoring and reporting of outcomes, measurements that reinforce the benefits of home care, which is traditionally less expensive than hospital or SNF care.  In addition, long-term care businesses experience higher turnover than general businesses, and in 2019, home health aides and LPNs experienced 25.36% and 22.50 turnover, respectively.  [See our blog post.]  If the author’s predictions come true – and how can they not, with the Medicare Part A Trust Fund now projected to be insolvent in 2024 – the home care industry needs to meet the challenge by having a stable supply of personnel with the proper training and expertise.

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